Key Points
- Bitcoin is projected to reach between $145,000 and $200,000 by mid-2025, with ETFs now holding over 1.13 million BTC and cumulative US spot ETF inflows reaching $35.5 billion in 2024.
- The cryptocurrency market is currently mid-cycle following the April 2024 halving, with analyses suggesting a potential market peak around Q3-Q4 2025, approximately 450 days post-halving.
ETF Impact and Market Dominance
In its final Alpha report for 2024, Bitfinex highlights Bitcoin’s extraordinary year, having surpassed $100,000 and achieved a $2 trillion market capitalization. The report emphasizes the transformative impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have accumulated over 1.13 million BTC since their launch. BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF has notably surpassed its Gold ETF counterpart in assets under management, demonstrating the growing institutional appetite for cryptocurrency exposure.
Technical Analysis Suggests Mid-Cycle Position
According to Bitfinex’s analysis, multiple indicators suggest the market is currently in a mid-cycle phase following the April 2024 halving. The report points to metrics such as MVRV, NUPL, and the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which show the market remains in a bull phase but has not yet reached euphoric peaks. The Pi Cycle Top and 4-Year Moving Average models project potential cycle tops between $145,000 and $189,000, though the report notes that diminishing returns are moderating gains compared to previous cycles.
2025 Market Outlook and Risk Factors
Bitfinex anticipates relatively mild corrections in 2025, primarily due to sustained institutional buying pressure through ETFs. The report suggests a potential correction in Q1 2025 before a continued upward trajectory. The analysis is particularly focused on the period around July 2025, which historical patterns suggest could mark a significant cycle peak. However, the report emphasizes that the market dynamics have evolved significantly with the introduction of ETFs and deeper institutional integration, potentially altering traditional cycle patterns.
The report concludes with a cautiously optimistic outlook, noting that while the path to higher prices appears clear, investors should remain vigilant for signs of overbought conditions as Bitcoin approaches its cycle top. Bitfinex’s analysis suggests that the combination of institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and post-halving dynamics could create a sustained bull market environment, albeit with more measured gains than in previous cycles.
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