Polymarket shows an 85% chance the CLARITY Act passes in 2026 as talks continue and lawmakers debate stablecoin reward rules.
Prediction markets are signaling strong momentum for crypto legislation as Polymarket shows rising confidence that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026.
The outlook comes as policymakers continue negotiations and as industry leaders make public comments on the future of digital asset rules.
Odds Rise After Market and Industry Signals
Polymarket data shows an 85% chance that the CLARITY Act advances into law during 2026.
The odds jumped to 90% after comments from Brian Armstrong, who said the regulatory process was moving in a positive direction.
Traders reacted quickly to the update, and the prediction market reflected that shift.
Market structure is making great progress, and I believe we’re going to reach a win-win-win outcome.
A win for the crypto industry.
A win for the banks.
And, most importantly, a win for the American consumer. pic.twitter.com/t0WM3XUZX4— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) February 18, 2026
Observers say the increased confidence comes during a period of active debate over crypto market structure.
Lawmakers have been discussing stablecoin rules, exchange oversight, and token classification.
Market participants continue to monitor these discussions, and Polymarket data shows that traders expect progress over the coming months.
Prediction markets often respond to real-time information.
The recent movement suggests traders believe that the current negotiations could result in an agreement that aligns banks, exchanges, and policymakers on key elements of the bill.
Congressional Activity Could Accelerate the Process
Bernie Moreno stated that Congress could move the CLARITY Act forward by April 2026 if ongoing talks reach a final agreement.
He said discussions are continuing, and lawmakers are reviewing proposals aimed at improving oversight while supporting market growth.
🚨 ODDS SIGNAL STRONG MOMENTUM FOR CRYPTO CLARITY ACT IN 2026
Polymarket is pricing an ~85% chance that Bitcoin & crypto market structure legislation ; specifically the CLARITY Act ; gets signed into law in 2026.
Odds spiked to 90% after bullish comments from Coinbase CEO… pic.twitter.com/3Gqq92b521
— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) February 20, 2026
The timeline offers a view into how the legislative process may unfold.
Lawmakers have been meeting with industry groups and financial institutions to refine language on stablecoin rewards and exchange obligations.
These meetings are part of a broader effort to create a clear framework that both sectors can support.
Negotiations remain active as policymakers review technical details within the bill.
Stablecoin-related rules have received the most attention, as banks and crypto firms have different views on reward structures and consumer products.
Lawmakers say the goal is to develop rules that reflect both innovation and market stability.
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Stablecoin Yields Remain the Main Sticking Point
One of the central topics in the negotiations concerns stablecoin rewards.
Banks have pushed for tighter limits, while crypto firms want the ability to offer flexible reward structures. This difference has shaped much of the ongoing discussion.
Lawmakers have said the issue must be resolved before the bill moves forward.
Stablecoin rules play a central role in defining how consumer products and payment tools operate.
The negotiations aim to create a model that can work for both traditional financial firms and digital asset companies.
Even with the remaining disagreements, market confidence continues to rise. Polymarket shows strong expectations that lawmakers will find a workable structure.
Traders appear to believe that the bill will advance once stablecoin reward rules are finalized.
