BTC and altcoins bounce but stablecoin dominance keeps climbing. MooninPapa warns USDT.D and USDC.D pressure may punish bulls who mistake this for a trend shift. 

BTC got close to tagging the daily fast line Thursday. $78,200 was the high. The fast line sat at $78,327. One percent away. Not quite.

Two green days printed Wednesday and Thursday. RSI looked weak. Volume looked weak. On-balance volume, according to MooninPapa on X, looked even worse.

Green Days, Ugly Internals

The four-hour chart did flash a TBT bullish divergence Wednesday afternoon. A TBO close short followed early Thursday. MooninPapa described those orange diamond signals as more powerful than a divergence alone. Two or three in a row, he noted in his YouTube market update, is a strong read. One is decent. But the four-hour is six times weaker than the daily frame. That math has not changed.

ETH has more reversal signals firing right now than BTC. A daily RSI reset confirmed Wednesday’s close after a reading of 20.24 on Tuesday. The price moved up to 27.18. A four-hour TBT bullish divergence cluster also printed, defined as three or more green triangles appearing within five candles.

The macro structure on Ethereum is still bearish. A valid TBO breakdown on the four-hour remains open. Until an orange diamond signal cancels that breakdown, ETH stays in bear territory regardless of the reversal noise.

Ethereum’s TBS support also jumped from $1,847 to $2,103. MooninPapa was direct on X: that kind of shift happens on strong downturns too. It is not a bullish confirmation on its own.

The Chart Killing the Altcoin Narrative

USDT.D and USDC.D combined printed two TBO close long signals on the four-hour. Four consecutive days of stablecoin dominance wicking above the cloud. Each of those pokes, per MooninPapa’s read, raises the probability of a sustained break above the cloud higher.

The combined stablecoin dominance target he is watching is not 10.5%. Not 11.8%. The level that matters is 13% and beyond. That would be a 25% increase from current readings. Back in late January, stablecoin dominance shot 46% over eight or nine days. Bitcoin flash-crashed during that same window.

BTC.D slipping lower and OTHERS.D breaking out created what MooninPapa called a false sense of confidence on X. OTHERS.D printed a TBO breakout Thursday, waking up from a range. The last time that same breakout printed was February 14. That marked the top. Chop followed for weeks.

TOTALE50 and TOTALE100, representing the lowest cap coins, also printed TBO close short signals on the four-hour. That is a bullish reversal read in isolation. The context around it is not supportive.

If stablecoin dominance combined pushes to 10.6%, 10.7%, or 10.8%, MooninPapa said on X, altcoins are in for a rough stretch. The stablecoin dominance trajectory has been on watch for weeks now.

The Watchlist Nobody Wants

ZEC moved 17% above overhead resistance Wednesday. It looked fragile Thursday. MooninPapa is watching the $700 to $720 area as a short entry.

NEAR printed a second confirmed TBO breakout on a 13% move and added another 4.8% Thursday. Next real target sits near $3.12. LIT ran 70% across four days. RSI maxed at 93.42 on the four-hour. Volume was fading as of Friday morning.

SOL tagged the fast line after a TBO close short printed at 1:00 a.m. Friday. The last time that signal fired was May 4, and SOL moved 17% from $84 to $98. A similar magnitude is not expected here. RSI is weak. MooninPapa said on X he is adding to his short position on any push toward $95.

TAO also tagged its first bounce target at the fast line. A push toward $305, where overhead resistance sits, would be a reasonable short entry setup. FARTCOIN, after dropping 33% from $0.26 to $0.17, has a TBO close short and looks set to oscillate toward $0.20 to $0.22.

HYPE pumped 14% wick to wick Thursday and hit $62.65. In five days, it has moved 49%. MooninPapa said on X he expects one more push higher but is already building a short position. RSI hit 86.16 Thursday, the highest reading on this run.

LINK is printing higher lows on the daily. On-balance volume is technically bullish. A second weekly TBT bullish divergence is in progress with three days left. The last confirmed weekly divergence in October 2024 led to a 200% move over 42 days. MooninPapa is not chasing longs here. “You do you,” he said in the video update.

MORPHO closed a TBL long and wicked 5% above the fast line and 3% above overhead resistance. It moved 18% in three days. RSI only hit 60.92. MooninPapa opened a short Friday morning regardless.

XRP, ADA, ALGO, RENDER, JUP, MON, ZBCN, ONDO, VET, KAS, DASH, FIRO, ARRR, STABLE, H, and FF all appear on the caution list. Many are bouncing inside bearish or